Grand Final Running Order—and Winner Speculation!

Now that we know the 26 songs that are competing in tonight’s Grand Final—and their running order (listed below)—our thoughts can run wild with predictions. The consensus in the Eurovision fan bubble this season has been that Sweden’s KAJ will run away with televote points, while Austria’s JJ has a lock on the jury. If this scenario does pan out, will either act do well enough with the other points bucket to secure victory, or will we have a unexpected victor who is second or third with both jury and televoters?

In 2016, this happened when Sergey Lazarev (“You Are the Only One” – Russia) won the televote while the jury favored Dami Im (“Sound of Silence” – Australia), giving the total points victory to Jamala’s “1944” (Ukraine) which was second with each group. Then in 2019, it happened again when Netherlands’ Duncan Laurence won with “Arcade” while coming second with the televote and third with the jury, while Norway’s KEiiNO swept away the televote with their song “Spirit in the Sky” and Tamara Todevska won over the jury with her song “Proud” (North Macedonia).

There are several candidates who could play that spoiler role this year. Rounding out the top 5 with the oddsmakers right now are France (Louane), Netherlands (Claude), and Finland (Erika Vikman), while some in the fanbase have been especially vocal about strategically voting for show closers Albania (Shkodra Elektronike, currently 9th in the odds) as that country has never won before. The thinking is that even if the televote isn’t enough to push “Zjerm” into the winners’ circle, we could see Albania get their highest placement ever (a title currently held by 5th place Rona Nishliu’s “Suus” from 2012).

Claude also presents a particularly appealing possibility. His song has a light, bouncy mood and sing-a-long-able lyrics—and it does seem as though Europe is in the mood for fun songs this year, based on the semi-final results—even though the song is deeply emotional, honoring his late mother’s memory. Even so, the song isn’t heavy or grief-stricken, it’s joyful and filled with love. Claude’s strong vocals carry the performance, which mirrors his music video.

A victory for the Netherlands is especially appealing after the events of the 2024 Eurovision when Netherlands was unceremoniously disqualified the day before the Grand Final. There was even speculation that AVROTROS, the Dutch broadcaster, would pull out of the 2025 competition altogether in response, and it would be a special sort of vindication to see AVROTROS get to host so soon after such controversy. (It could be especially interesting to see their take on the welfare of contestants and performers, as well as press access to the event.) 

Erika Vikman seems to have the most momentum coming out of the semi-finals this week, as her performance to close the semi-finals was a breath of fresh air to those who did not watch UMK. For those who did, it was a great reminder of what a commanding performer she is, and how she gets the crowd eating out of the palm of her hand simply by filling the arena with her particular brand of charisma, uniqueness, nerve and talent.

What do you think we should expect tonight? Will we have a consensus champion who wins both jury and televote? A split winner who takes the lion’s share of one bucket (the past two years it has been the jury winner, while previously the advantage went to the televote winner)? Or a compromise winner who is not the favorite of the jury or televote but well-loved enough by both? Tell us in the comments below or @ us on insta, threads, x, or bluesky!

Check out tonight’s running order: