Rehearsal week has taken Eurovision by storm, which means that the fandom has seen staging concepts, initial camera angles, and questions about how to get the same feeling from the widely raved music videos galore. The delegations are working hard to make sure every little detail is right for the final night, and to impress everyone in Europe and the world.
All this time, we’ve seen momentum shifts as the contestants take the stage and tweak their shows to have them ready for their respective semi-finals. How have the initial run-throughs impacted the odds on who could qualify or win the contest?
Semifinal One:
One major standout amongst the semifinal one contestants is Bambie Thug from Ireland. With their witchy aesthetic on full display and the thoughtful camera angles shown in their “Doomsday Blues”, it has maintained seventh place in the odds of qualifying to the final, before falling to sixth most likely at 1/5 odds. Amongst the odds to win it all, it was its tightest just when it was selected in early February, but has recently gone back to being a dark horse, at 8th place with 22/1 to win it all.
While Ukraine’s “Teresa and Maria” was a solid fan favorite when it was selected in Vidbir, over the preseason, the odds have widened to 5th place before first rehearsals. When the staging for Malmo dropped, the odds to win have also, as staging errors from the other delegations made Ukraine’s warrior-like package blossom. While their qualification odds remain solid (1/100–1/200 odds to qualify), their winning chances have narrowed down to third, with 9/2 odds to take the trophy.
On the other hand, the rehearsals saw qualification odds slip further away for Australia. The eclectic pop song, “One milkali (One Blood)” mixes pop and Aboriginal elements in a vibrant concoction, but initial rehearsals saw its borderline qualifier status switch to borderline non-qualifier, with 6/7 odds to qualify. Serbia also had its odds drift despite a solid run of first rehearsals; despite remaining in the qualifying region, its odds widened from ninth most likely to tenth at 4/9.
These shifts benefited iolanda the most, along with her song “Grito”. Upscaling her performance from Festival da Canção, the consistent vocals and late running order led to her odds to qualify narrowing from 2/3 on on April 27th to 2/5 on May 2–putting her ninth most likely to qualify. However, it’s winning chances are still very distant, at 300/1 as of May 2.
Semifinal Two:
When Greece’s first rehearsal video was uploaded on Tiktok, it garnered 2.5 million views over the last few days. Thanks to Marina’s energetic stage presence and the eccentric characters the one camera-take staging promises, its odds to win narrowed on Tuesday, before “Zari” fell down to ninth most likely to win it all when the camerawork was better defined. Marina’s qualifying chances has remained secure at 1/20, putting it as the third most likely song to qualify.
Nemo’s “The Code” is one of the main frontrunners of this year’s contest, and the song maintained its top spot in the odds to win it all for a month. However, when photos of their first rehearsal was released, featuring the singer wearing a fluffy pink overcoat and boots, the odds started to drift, falling to second place to win at 3/1. This allowed “Rim Tim Tagi Tim” to overtake it amongst the main contenders, though not enough to pull it out of the running.
Once seen as a dark horse to win the competition, Mustii’s “Before the Party’s Over” has seen mixed responses when the first rehearsals were released. with the odds widening since April 30. Mustii’s wavering vocal performances also provided room for concern, and his chances are now at 1/5 to qualify. Similarly, his odds of pulling off a victory have gone further away, now at 100/1–matching its lowest likelihood since April 24.
The Big Five:
With Angelina’s “La noia”, Italy has maintained a consistent top-five placing on who is most likely to win, along with Croatia, Switzerland, and Ukraine. Its odds slightly widened upon their first rehearsal, which are now at 11/2.
One winner amongst the Big Five is the United Kingdom. With the staging for “Dizzy”, which takes Olly Alexander to space in a futuristic landscape, it turned the United Kingdom into a dark horse. With odds as long as 70/1 to win outright on April 15 (making it 15th most likely to win), they have narrowed to 40/1 upon showing the first rehearsal photos. Its odds to make the top ten also narrowed to 5/2.
